A mass​ movement of people – why?

We live in a globalised world. For me, personally, the opening up of the world beyond my immediate communities was a wonderful thing. It allowed me to travel widely though in the early days of my travels this was much more difficult than it is now. It allowed me to be in touch in a meaningful way with many people in different parts of the world. I have travelled to the North American continent, to parts of Africa and widely across Europe. It has allowed me to choose to live in a country I wanted to live in (rather than the one I was born in).

But all this comes with major downsides, which we have to acknowledge.

Globalisation has led to employment being moved around the world, chasing lower wages and standards. Globalisation has led to food, manufactured goods and services being shifted from one place to another, destabilising economies and markets in the process. And it has come at a cost in terms of global emissions caused by the movement of people and stuff.

There are many other factors that way heavily on the downside of globalisation and every time I travel and every time I relish the world-wide contacts I have, this is something I have to address.

But we also have moved from a situation where being in touch was difficult without physically being in the same place to one where a number of different technologies allow us to communicate immediately, almost without direct cost to ourselves with lots and lots of people the world over.

When I spent a year in the US in 1969/70 (as an exchange student), I had one phone call with my family in Europe during that year. That was all that was possible and affordable. It had to be booked in advance and it lasted 3 minutes. Now, when I meet friends with family abroad, they can be on Facetime with them several times a day.

So why are people still moving from one place to another in their thousands and thousands? And I’m not talking about people fleeing for their lives. I’m talking about people travelling for business, to their second homes abroad, to visit family and friends and on holiday.

This became very visible to me when I was tracking a flight a friend was on. I did this for fun, really, but came across a website called Flightradar24 https://www.flightradar24.com/23.1,-159.28/4.

This is a website that tracks most aircraft in the air at all times. Indeed, I understand that about two-thirds of aircraft are equipped with the technology needed for them to be visible on this system. I was utterly amazed at the picture it showed up.

Here are some examples:

Screen Shot 2018-10-25 at 19.42.55

This one was taken on 25 October 2018 at 19.43 UK time

Screen Shot 2018-11-01 at 09.32.10

This one was taken on 1 November 2018 at 9.32 UK time

And I could go on showing more and more of these. Looking at them globally, it’s hard to see the detail, but you see the density of flights and their distribution.

In fact, according to a piece on the website Quora[1](https://www.quora.com/How-many-airplanes-are-in-flight-on-average-at-any-given-time-worldwide) this shows that there are about 6000 + in the air at any one time but – because the Flightradar24 site only monitors some 2/3rds of flights, this is an underestimate.

Of course some of the planes aren’t commercial passenger planes so won’t have loads of people on board. But I would argue that it is still possible to suggest that on average there are about 6000 or so commercial planes in the air at any one time. They will vary in size and in the number of passengers they can carry. But if we assume that they carry 250 passengers on average, than that means that there are 1.5 million of us in the air at any given moment. In a 24 hour period (and assuming the average flight time at 4.5 hours – though I think that is probably to high an estimate) then that means that there are 6.5 million passenger flights in the air each day.

You may argue with the precise numbers (and I’d be willing to amend this post if someone can give me better and credible figures) but the basic premise is this: why are 6.5 million people a day moving from A to B in aircraft. Where are they going? What are they doing? Why can’t they do whatever they’re doing by phone, internet or some other method that does not involve massive CO2 emissions, significant amounts of time, and – on a lighter note – consuming appalling airline food?

And it doesn’t stop there. We also travel manically on the surface of the earth. I was struck the other day by the number of people who seemingly travel from York to London (a journey I make a few times a year). So I looked into the question of how many trains there are in a day. There are 46 on weekdays starting after 3 am and going on until half past 10 at night.

600px-British_Rail_Class_43_at_Chesterfield

Photo credit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCity_125

They are all long trains. Generally they have 8 or 9 coaches. During the hours I travel, they tend to be quite full. At 8 coaches with an average of 70 seats per coach they provide over 25000 seats. Even if only two thirds of these seats are filled it’s still 17000 passenger journeys per day. Even if only half of these seats are filled it’s still 12500 journeys per day. Where are they going? What are they doing?

When I’m on the train, lots of these people are working on stuff, talking to colleagues and business contacts. So they can do a lot of their work online. So what is it that they need to get to in person? All 12500 of them (or more) each day?

I’m not going to try to calculate the carbon footprint of all this travel. But it’s a lot.

What I will say is this: we need a new approach to our economy and our lives that does not depend on this mass movement of people on a daily basis.

When I travelled to the US in 1969 I did so by boat. Probably not very environmentally friendly either. It was a big deal to go abroad. It was a big deal to go to the US. All travel was a big deal. And that made it special. Which is one of the things that travel should be.

Now, going on a plane is like catching a bus to some people. You just do it, without thinking. It’s faster and cheaper than trains (it shouldn’t be cheaper!) and it seems convenient – until you’re stuck in the security queue.

We can experience the world through documentaries, films, news programmes and so much more. But the more we can learn about the world without going everywhere, the more we want to go everywhere. And we don’t realise that this excess travel contributes to the extinction of the very life forms we claim to love so much that we must see them.

We can talk to people by phone, Zoom, Skype, Facetime and probably scores of other computer applications I haven’t even heard of. So why not make the actual occasions when you travel to see each other much rarer and much more special.

If we want an economic model that works within the confines of one planet, and if we want a life that doesn’t depend on endless moving from one place to another to such an extent that we don’t even notice we’re doing it, then we have to rethink. We have to make travel special again.

[1]If you want to know more about Quora you can find it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quora

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Do we get what the planet is telling us?

It’s been an important few weeks for the planet. We have had the most recent report from the IPCC. It makes salutary reading for policymakers and for each of us individually. At the same time, at the very same time unbelievably, the UK has given the go-ahead for fracking in Lancashire against considerable public protest and against the wishes of the local authority concerned.

Democracy also has had a bad time in other ways. Not only was the local authority overruled in this case (which does not bode well for other local areas in this context) but three protesters were given ridiculous jail sentences for protesting. This was the first time since the mass trespass on Kinder Scout in 1932 that protesters exercising their democratic right to protest were jailed.

They were released after an appeal in which the court held that the jail sentences were completely disproportionate. There are many news reports of this. You can read one of them here.

What was not heard in that appeal court, were arguments about the original trial judge’s potential bias. Here is a report on this potential bias from the Mail Online. It is more than disappointing that the appeal court would not hear arguments about this aspect of the case.

But beyond the day to day stories about how we as a society fail to embrace the reality of Climate Breakdown, we need to hear the voice of the planet.

Yesterday, I came across a video that is an attempt to speak for the planet. Indeed, it presents itself as ‘Messages from the Blue Planet’.

Screen Shot 2018-10-18 at 12.34.02

You can argue that it is just one person speaking for the planet. But even so, it is a very moving message which we really need to hear. It’s an hour long and watching it is an hour well spent.

There is a moment when the planet says: ‘if you want to know how we (i.e. the planet) are feeling, watch the weather’. Well, this summer, this year, the last few years, we have had plenty of weather to watch. And though I’m not an expert, I’d say the planet is angry!

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Facts – and what they mean

If you’ve been following this blog, you’ll know that one of the things I care about is using facts and interpreting them in a meaningful way; using numbers and putting them into context.

This week (first week in April 2018) BBC Radio 4 had a fascinating Book of the Week, broadcast in 5 episodes each morning from 9.45 to 10 am. Not maybe the most helpful slot in the day but as I’m retired I have been able to listen to them.

They are also available on the radio iplayer of the BBC. Below is a link to each of the episodes:

Episode 1

Episode 2

Episode 3

Episode 4

Episode 5

The book is Factfulness by Hans Rosling. I don’t know much about Hans Rosling beyond the information on his Wikipedia page. What is clear is that his training as a statistician in particular gave him the ability to contextualise numbers in a way that is so often missing in today’s discussions.

In the episode aired on Thursday, the fact that grabbed me was his assertion that a lot of activists and campaigners don’t always know enough of the facts around their issue and therefore tend to make things sound worse than they are. Now things are not good on many fronts, but making them sound worse than they are can be very counterproductive because it can instil a sense of hopelessness.

There are many ways in which we can learn from Hans Rosling. So I encourage you to listen to the programmes the BBC aired, to read his book: Factfulness (the link is to the English Kindle edition – for which apologies – but it is a very easy format to access) or to listen to his TED talk.

 

And enjoy!

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Renewable Energy – where next in the UK?

I know that comparing the UK with other EU member states isn’t all that fashionable these days. But as long as we are still in the EU we do still benefit from regular statistical comparison between what we do here and what others do in their countries. Statistics about energy generation and energy consumptions are not exception.

On 21 February, the i Newspaper published one of its regular infographics on page 2. This one was on renewable energy. It compared the share of energy derived from renewable sources in EU member states between 2004 and 2016. I’m not sure why they chose these two dates, but it turns out that Eurostat had published these figures and so they decided to report on this.

The graph showed the percentages derived from all renewable sources in those two years in each EU member state and the EU average. It did not compare the relative improvement for each EU member state and the EU as a whole, which, in my view, is also an important bit of information. If you start from a low base, and even if you make a relatively strong effort to improve, the overall outcome may still be low but the relative difference might be more respectable.

So I went to the source material[1] and did some graphs myself. I thought I would share them here.

What was the picture in 2004?

2004

The EU average was at about 8.5%; that means in 2004, 8.5% of the energy was derived from renewable sources across all 28 member states (at that time, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia had not joined but their figures were included as they were already candidate or pre-accession countries).

The UK came in at a woeful 3rd from bottom with 1.1 % in front of only Malta and Luxembourg.

The country with the highest proportion is – not altogether surprisingly – Sweden at 38.7%. What is maybe more surprising is that Croatia – then still a pre-accession country and recovering from a relatively recent war – was in 4th place with 23.5 %.

And what is the picture in 2016?

2016

Headline good news: overall the percentage across the EU has increased to 13.5%; that is not true for all member states. And, notably, Sweden, now in 2nd place has slipped down to 37.1% just behind Latvia which is now on 37.2%.

The UK has improved its position from 3rd to 7th (out of 28) and is now at 8.1%; that is still lower than the EU average some 14 years earlier, though.

What of the relative improvement (or otherwise) over the 14 years?

For me, the really crucial questions aren’t just the absolute numbers but also the relative shift that each member state has made.

This, then is the picture:

Percentage change

The overall improvement was 5 % across the EU. That’s quite a small improvement and from a low base (8.5 to 13.5% respectively). 10 countries did better than the average, 15 did worse but still made improvements, and three decreased their share of energy derived from renewables. All three had been at the high end in 2004 (places 1, 4 and 7 respectively). But overall, this does not reflect a continent that has ‘got’ the need to decouple from fossil fuel. Not even in the energy sector, never mind in transport and elsewhere.

The UK made improvements. From place 3 to place 7; from 1.1 to 8.1 %; and it therefore finds itself in place 5 in the league table of improvers. Interestingly, and despite the fact that this is probably the best bit of news we can derive from the figures published, the infographics in the i newspaper did not show this and did not provide data to allow anyone to draw that conclusion.

The take home message?

All EU countries need to do more to shift from fossil fuels to renewables in energy generation. The UK started on a very low base, has made some improvements, is still nowhere near the EU average in the share derived from renewables but has progressed faster than some others. Must do better but hats off for trying?

Well, given that there is enough solar energy available to provide well in excess of what we could possibly need[1], and given that reducing our dependence on fossil fuels is essential for the climate, the planet, and to improve air quality, there is no excuse for slow progress, limited targets, and lacklustre performance. Yet more evidence that we need to hold our politicians to account. And leaving the EU isn’t going to help, not least because we’re not likely to get any decent comparable information.

[1] See The Switch by Chris Goodall reviewed inter alia in Green World: http://www.greenworld.org.uk/article/review-switch-how-solar-storage-and-new-tech-means-cheap-power-all

[1] Source of data: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Renewable_energy_statistics#Main_tables accessed on 22 February 2018

Posted in Behind the Headlines, Climate Change, Politics in context, renewable energy, UK-EU | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

UK-US TRADE DEAL TO BE SHROUDED IN SECRECY

UK-US Trade Deal I Front Page

This is the morning’s front page that greeted me on 21 December 2017. Several things immediately spring to the forefront of my mind:

  • We weren’t supposed to start trade negotiations until after we’ve left the EU; so what is the Department for International Trade doing discussing transparency – or rather the lack of it – with the US? Shouldn’t they be looking into the complex issues of what the trade relationship with the EU needs to look like post-Brexit at this stage?
  • And how are our representatives in Parliament supposed to assess any trade deal that might be struck between the UK and the US if they don’t get to see the detail?
  • And why is there a need for such secrecy? The shadow of TTIP (the Transatlantic Trade and Development Partnership) looms in the background of this headline. This, too, was going to be negotiated in secret and it was only massive public protest that opened up (and arguably scotched) that deal. And why was the public up in arms about it: because TTIP opened up the risk of the NHS being open to the US private healthcare market; because TTIP opened up the risk of our (in this case EU but the UK has the same) food safety standards being undermined; and because TTIP enshrined the Investor State Dispute Settlement process into the treaty. That treaty hasn’t happened and isn’t likely to happen in this form. But that is no thanks to the UK government. Indeed, the UK was one of the cheerleaders for it.

Some things are already clear. If we leave the EU (and although there might be some chance that this foolish decision could be reversed but I don’t rate that chance very high) there will be a move to enter into a trade deal with the US (and with many other countries). That, in itself, is not a bad thing in those circumstances. It is a necessary thing.

What is also clear – through the story behind this headline – is that our government does not want public scrutiny of what it negotiates arguably on our behalf and for our benefit. This is seriously bad news. We need to know that any trade deal, be it with the EU, the US or anyone else, is good for people and good for the planet.

Taking just the three key issues which were the trigger for mass opposition to TTIP, those risks are still there and very much at the core of any trade deal with the US:

  • Opening up the NHS to competition from US Healthcare companies would likely undermine the nature of the NHS even more than the marketization and creeping privatisation we have seen over the last few years have already done. There are powerful forces at work who will not rest until we have an insurance based system that means people will have to pay for health care at the point of delivery and their access to healthcare will depend on the type of insurance they can get and/or afford. This is the exact opposite of what the NHS is about and we need to be vigilant in the context of trade negotiations
  • It is near enough a certainty that the Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism will be part of any such trade deal. This essentially gives foreign investors – for which read multinationals who want to muscle in on our markets to the detriment of local companies – the right to take our government to private, secret arbitration panels (they call them courts but they are anything but) to curb regulation and exact high fines for any regulations the multinationals don’t like. There is no appeal. Essentially it is a tool for multinationals to take over government by blackmailing the elected governments into doing what they want or fleece them. The other side of this ISDS nightmare is, of course, that local companies have no access to such arbitration panels and therefore are disadvantaged in their own home markets. There is only one way to describe this: it stinks to high heaven.
  • In the UK we have very high standards for food safety and animal welfare. They are nowhere near high enough; we still have battery chickens and we still have large-scale factory farming for cattle, dairy and no doubt other sectors. But our standards are much higher than those in the US. A secret trade deal could allow our standards to be compromised so that we can import US agricultural products that are of a lesser standard than ours. Chlorine washed chickens won’t be on the fresh poultry counters of your upmarket supermarkets; but you can bet that they will be in any ready meal made with chicken. High levels of antibiotics in US beef will, one way or another, get into our food chain through cheap burgers and the like.

These risks are just for starters. There is likely lots more that can be hidden in a secret trade deal that we definitely wouldn’t like if we knew about it. Why are they going to be kept secret if there isn’t likely to be significant opposition to them?

And if TTIP is anything to go by, discussions with industry and multinationals did happen – also behind closed doors – so that the very people that look to their bottom line as the only measure of decency, the very people who see ordinary folk as fodder for their marketing without much reflection of what is good for people and planet were the ones who did see the small print. But the taxpayers, citizens, users of services, customers of shops and so on, the people whose lives will be affected greatly by such a deal weren’t included in the debate.

So, we have been warned. Now is the time to get organised. I don’t support Brexit but Brexit was fought on the slogan of ‘take back control’. Well, that’s what we have to do: challenge our government to put control back into the hands of ordinary people via their elected representatives.

Posted in Behind the Headlines, NHS, Politics in context, Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, UK Trade Post Brexit | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

National Park City

It’s a strange concept to talk about a National Park and a city in the same breath. But for some time, there has been an initiative in London to get the city declared a National Park City.

I have been broadly in support of this from the moment I heard it although I haven’t always paid as much attention to the natural environment in London as that support might imply. It was more a matter of political support. For example, the initiative’s supporters are trying to get local ward Councillors to endorse the idea and therefore are asking supporters to contact their local Councillors to ask them to do so. Of course, by now, many have done so, so your ward might already be covered, but just in case, you can still check this.

On Sunday 30 July this year, Countryfile covered this initiative. The focus of the programme was the city, its environment and the importance of ensuring that city environments are looked after. We learned that the London National Park City initiative has established that 49% of the surface of London is green space: gardens, parks, wetlands, riverbanks and the like. If every household in London added 1 m2 of green space – by digging up some hard landscaping in the garden or on the drive for example – this would be more than 50%. That’s pretty impressive and something a lot of us can do.

The programme featured a wetland in Hackney, which has been opened to the public relatively recently (in late 2016). I had never heard of it but decided to go and explore it.

So on Monday, off we went to Hackney.

It turns out that this wetland, the Woodberry Wetland, is within easy walking distance of Manor House tube station, less than half an hour on public transport from my doorstep.

P1040691

It is quite an amazing place located in an area otherwise occupied by a range of different types o

f housing developments. Some of these are not very picturesque in themselves but it is obvious that the residents must have a fabulous view. Sometimes what you see from the inside of a home looking out is as important or more important than what you see from the outside looking at the building. And in a particular light, the unprepossessing tower blocks create a mirror image in the water that makes them look quite attractive.

P1040710In a city the green spaces are located within built architecture much more than would be the case in more rural locations. So taking the architecture into account in enjoying and interpreting the space is important. From one particular vantage point we looked at a view of a range of housing stretching from probably the 50’s (or earlier) to the very recent past.

We live in difficult times.

It is important that we see and appreciate some of the things around us that simply are, that simply are beautiful and simply lift our spirits. So I want to share some of the photos I took when we walked around the Woodberry Wetlands and along the New River Path.

P1040671This heron was sitting there for a very long time and moved very little. It exuded calm and a sense of just being there. Then it flew off – I missed that moment so no photo of a heron in flight – and we didn’t see it again that afternoon.

There were lots of gulls on the water.

 

 

P1040702They congregated around some logs or a sandbank or some structure they could sit on and fly off from and they did so all afternoon. I took loads of pictures but most of them were totally out of focus because the gulls are so much quicker flying off than I am pressing the shutter.

 

The ducks and moorhens were on the New River (which is neither new nor a river, by the way) and again, we saw some really wonderful sights of them just doing what they do. Here are a few pictures:P1040734

P1040732

P1040720

I’m sure that some of you will be able to tell me exactly what birds these are – I’m no expert in these things, though I’m pretty sure we’ve got a swan and some ducks here.

The wetland is also full of lovely wild flowers – I could have taken hundreds of pictures but one will do:

P1040695

And we saw common squirrels running around freely. I didn’t get a still photo of them, just some video footage which I can’t add to this blog but will put up on Facebook along with some footage of a nest being tended.

Why am I writing all this on this blog?

This isn’t about rational thought, is it? Well, yes I do think it is. What we need to be clear about is this: we have to protect our environment in such a way that the whole ecosystem can sustain itself. We have to do that in the city as much as we do in the countryside. We have to embrace this as part of what makes life worth living and therefore it has to be part of the public discourse. If we don’t embrace it, if we don’t make a point of enjoying it, if we don’t let our politicians know that this matters to us and that we are willing to give it priority in terms of spending and decision-making, they won’t do it.

Creating a national park city in London would be one really important step in this direction and it is important that all of us pull in this direction so that it will happen.

 

 

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A one-sided contest

I am so grateful to the EAs for going to witness the daily reality on the ground and for reporting on it. We need to make sure that (a) we hear their testimony and share it widely and (b) our political leaders and our political representatives hear this testimony, too, and act as a result of this. Please share; please send to your MP; please send to your MEP; please take note!

EAPPI UK & Ireland Blogs

By EA Andy, Northern West Bank

Muhammad looks at me, exasperated: “Imagine how you would feel if 70 hooligans turned up out of nowhere and started throwing rocks at you and your house?”

Six weeks ago, Muhammad was with two of his daughter at his home in the West Bank, in a small town near Nablus, when he realised rocks were being thrown at his house. His first thought was for Badi’a, his 68-year old mother-in-law, who was with her sheep in the nearby olive grove. The attack was coming from that direction, so he knew she was in most danger. He immediately went to her aid, and helped her towards the house. Shortly afterwards he heard the cries of his teenage daughters, calling from the garden. They had rushed outside as stones crashed through the windows only to find themselves being stoned in the small garden. Muhammad faced a…

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